NNSquad - Network Neutrality Squad
[ NNSquad ] Whither Goes Twitter?
Whither Goes Twitter?
http://lauren.vortex.com/archive/000981.html
In the lexicon of Internet developer-speak, APIs are king. APIs --
Application Programming Interfaces -- are the behind-the-scenes
channels that client applications use to communicate with system
servers for a wide range of Internet-delivered services.
So when Twitter announced a few days ago an array of major changes and
some key new restrictions regarding use of Twitter APIs, there were
reports that many in the developer community had brought out their
pitchforks and torches in angry response (http://j.mp/Pk4c9u [New York
Times]).
In a nutshell, Twitter's new rules apply a variety of limits and rules
on how clients may use Twitter APIs, which are being widely viewed as
being particularly limiting to clients that simply display and
generate Twitter messages ("tweets"), and/or are newcomers on the
scene without large, already established user bases.
These criticisms appear to have significant merit.
But Twitter is between something of a rock and a hard place right now,
a moment of truth that will determine its course in major ways.
We can certainly stipulate that Twitter has every right to make these
changes.
They've been providing services to the Internet community nearly
entirely for free, and claims of "bait and switch" related to the new
rules ("We helped build you up -- how can you do this to us?") are
understandable -- but may not take into account the reality Twitter
faces going forward.
Part of the problem seems historical. While it's probably difficult
to get Twitter to admit it outright, their 140 character message
limit, apparently tied to original SMS (text message) standards, has
always been constraining.
Some observers have always attempted to suggest that this forced
brevity is a benefit -- but I've tended to view this as something of a
excuse rather than a ringing endorsement of incomplete sentences and
bizarre abbreviations.
It's been clear for quite some time that Twitter feels these
constraints as well, as they've built more mechanisms into their site
that more easily connect and link full-length materials to individual
tweets and tweet conversation threads.
The rise of these tweet expansion mechanisms -- along of course with
the desire to inject various forms of service supporting advertising
materials -- are likely key drivers of the new API policies, which
pretty much will shut out any new clients that can't display the whole
gamut of Twitter content. My guess is that older clients that don't
meet these specifications will ultimately be dropped from API access
as well.
This may well be completely necessary from Twitter's standpoint.
Twitter, like Facebook to a significant extent, is something of a
one-trick pony. Given the rapid speed of changes on the Web, this
means the pony had better adapt fast or it's going to be left behind
in the dust.
This does naturally enough point to the value of diversification.
Recall the reactions when Google initially started expanding into
areas beyond basic search, experimenting with a range of different and
often interconnected services -- some of which have been highly
successful, some of which have been shut down over time. Critics
claimed (some still do) that Google has too unfocused an array of
projects.
But in the fullness of time, the wisdom of Google's management in
taking this empirically-oriented course has been clearly demonstrated
to most observers, as the range of services in a comprehensive Google
ecosystem has not only benefited users, but has created a form of
overall "future proofing" against downturns and competition in any
specific market segment.
In the case of Twitter, I fully expect that despite changes in its API
policies, users and developers will mostly adapt. I am unconvinced
that such changes will annoy enough users to drive them en masse -- in
the short run at least -- to other (free or fee-based) services.
Of the most longer-term concern perhaps, is whether the foundational
Twitter ecosystem itself is becoming stagnant, despite Twitter's
attempts to broaden its content reach.
I've noticed (and anecdotally, this seems to be a common impression)
that the overall level of useful conversational activity I see on
Twitter has dropped considerably in relevance.
Twitter still plays an enormously important role in getting news out
quickly regarding important (or even trivial) events, and in providing
communication conduits for persons under siege in countries with
repressive governments.
But at least in my own case, it seems that many communications that I
formerly engaged on Twitter have migrated elsewhere (e.g. Google+),
and distressingly, most new followers I get on Twitter are now "We've
got something to sell ya'!" spammy in nature, not true communicative
followers in the original sense.
What this all may mean for Twitter's future is decidedly unclear.
Twitter has contributed mightily to the Web and the Internet community
at large, but the crossroads at which Twitter now finds itself is a
critical one.
If developers (for whatever reasons) are sufficiently energized to
move toward other platforms, the deleterious effects on Twitter could
be serious. And Twitter must now very carefully balance its content
expansion course against the expectations it has created over its
operational lifetime to this point. Concerns over censorship and the
influence of content partners (not limited to Twitter, but spotlighted
over the London Olympics) also are in play.
Realistically, I don't think that Twitter has very much margin for
error.
But I do very much hope that they're able to successfully thread this
needle. It would be a great loss for us all if they ultimately miss
that mark.
--Lauren--
Lauren Weinstein (lauren@vortex.com): http://www.vortex.com/lauren
Co-Founder: People For Internet Responsibility: http://www.pfir.org/pfir-info
Founder:
- Network Neutrality Squad: http://www.nnsquad.org
- PRIVACY Forum: http://www.vortex.com/privacy-info
- Data Wisdom Explorers League: http://www.dwel.org
- Global Coalition for Transparent Internet Performance: http://www.gctip.org
Member: ACM Committee on Computers and Public Policy
Lauren's Blog: http://lauren.vortex.com
Google+: http://vortex.com/g+lauren / Twitter: http://vortex.com/t-lauren
Tel: +1 (818) 225-2800 / Skype: vortex.com
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