[ NNSquad ] Re: Predicting a black market in IPv4 addresses

[Wes Felter <wesley@felter.org>]

Whether the market is white or black, let's guess that the retail price 
of an IPv4 address will increase from $1/month to roughly $10/month. 
That isn't a lot of money, considering that you can run a fairly large 
service on one address using load balancers.

>     " ... predict that many new servers will be IPv6-exclusive, gradually
>           isolating IPv4-only Internet users."

I predict that this will *not* happen. All public-facing services will 
have IPv4; it's the "clients" who will be on IPv6 + DS-Lite. It's not 
that bad of a scenario, since mostly everything will mostly work.

(Broadband providers swear that they wouldn't take IPv4 addresses away 
from residential customers and sell those addresses to hosting 
customers, but I'll believe that when I don't see it.)

Wes Felter