NNSquad - Network Neutrality Squad
[ NNSquad ] The Broadband Plan, Early March
----- Forwarded message from David Farber <dave@farber.net> ----- Date: Thu, 4 Mar 2010 20:51:43 -0500 From: David Farber <dave@farber.net> Subject: [IP] The Broadband Plan, Early March Reply-To: dave@farber.net To: ip <ip@v2.listbox.com> Begin forwarded message: From: dewayne@warpspeed.com (Dewayne Hendricks) Date: March 4, 2010 11:03:33 AM EST To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <xyzzy@warpspeed.com> Subject: [Dewayne-Net] The Broadband Plan, Early March [Note: This item comes from friend Dave Burstein. DLH] The Broadband Plan, Early March Written by Dave Burstein <http://fastnetnews.com/dslprime/42-d/2623-the-broadband-plan-early-march> The U.S. broadband plan accomplishes very little for affordability, quality, speed, or availability of broadband in the U.S., although it has other important achievements I describe below. In particular The “100 megabits to 100 million homes” is right on target for what will be achieved by 2015 without any broadband plan. (FCC/Columbia CITI November 2009). Based on cable company's official statements, I reported in August 2009 102 million homes would have 100 megabit capable DOCSIS by around 2013. http://bit.ly/c7jMuJ Fewer than 4% of U.S. homes that can only get satellite (“unserved”) will be reached because of the plan. It's more likely only 1-2% of homes will be upgraded. Broadband prices are more likely to increase than decrease because of the plan, especially if a multi-billion dollar Internet tax is included. There's nothing wrong with taxing the Internet like anything else, but this “fee” goes to the shareholders and bondholders of phone companies, not re-opening closed hospitals. Only a small fraction of the poor will get substantial help according to the best information I can find. In particular, the much-touted cable A+ plan provides “back of the bus broadband” throttled to a tenth the normal speed, available to less than one in five of the poor, and actually more expensive than Verizon's recent promotion. AT&T has offered similar, but I don't know if it's included. Since nearly all mobile phones will include broadband in a few years and far more than 90% of families have a mobile phone, the 90% take rate in 2020 would almost certainly be achieved without the plan, probably several years earlier. I sent the data above to Julius for factchecking. He sent back no contrary facts. http://bit.ly/9v0dRM Expected but not yet announced Everyone who hasn't seen the plan is still asking “What's in it.” The Wall Street Journal and Washington Post today had apparently contradictory stories despite probably getting their leaks from the same sources. Most of it is public already if a reporter digs. I've based the on public statements and non-FCC sources, not “leaks” from the FCC. Expect a few errors. Highly likely to be included: Microsoft and Dell will have a computer discount program probably implemented by One Economy and Connected Nation. “Lifeline broadband” will be called help for the poor but could be corporate welfare in disguise Discounts on service from the cablecos (A+) and probably AT&T. A+ as announced is a shallow pr exercise to prevent real price drops. USF totally re-focused, with the recipients being pushed to convert to all IP. Free.fr, Verizon FiOS, and AT&T U-Verse are showing how for much less expensive IP networks can be compared to the PSTN. Most details not yet announced, but there's an internal push to use the broadband plan to reduce some of the obvious waste in the program. A focused program for the last 3-5% that will include wireless. Most of the remaining “unserved” are so scattered there is no easy way to reach them except through the existing local telco or cableco. Satellite (5 megabit, somewhat reduced latency) for the last 1% or so very expensive to reach with terrestrial broadband. $91K/home for Hawaiian politicians and Sandwich Islands illustrate how USF can be wasteful/abused, and they are trying to avoid similar. Note that serving 1% by satellite reduces the $20-35B estimates in September possibly in half. The $350B, beloved of lobbyists and uninformed reporters, never was on the table. Some school and library program put forth in the name of broadband adoption. Some transfer of spectrum from defense etc. to commercial, but this could be minimal Pole attachment and other rules that are important but I don't understand E-rate and ideally USF spending details made public on the web, including improved public bidding for e-rate contracts Proposals on better but not complete disclosure of the details of different carrier’s broadband offerings [snip]RSS Feed: <http://www.warpspeed.com/wordpress> ------------------------------------------- Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/247/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/247/ Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com ----- End forwarded message -----