NNSquad - Network Neutrality Squad
[ NNSquad ] A History Lesson: Microsoft Windows - "Exit, Stage Right"
A History Lesson: Microsoft Windows - "Exit, Stage Right"
http://lauren.vortex.com/archive/000641.html
Greetings. For this holiday weekend, a quick trip into the Time
Tunnel (watch out for the sparks and smoke!) as we explore the
ascendancy, and decline, of some key technologies. Students of
technology history are quick to recognize that when viewed
retrospectively, most major technologies exhibit an arc of innovation,
widespread deployment, then decline and decay. The precise shape of
the curve in any given case will vary, but particularly in the
communications and computer fields, there are some pretty obvious
patterns -- with declines sometimes hastened by poor decisions, a lack
of insight -- or both.
The telegraph once reigned supreme. But when Western Union was
offered the early chance to buy Bell's telephone patents for virtually
a song, WU passed, considering the phone to be a faddish device
without serious utility. Today Western Union's only remaining obvious
existence is as a money transfer service frequently abused by Internet
"419" scammers.
AT&T and its kin later suffered their own cloudy vision in not
recognizing the enormous potential of the Internet until relatively
late in the game -- leading directly to today's various efforts by
telcos and cable companies to regain control of the Internet ecosystem
through attacks on Net Neutrality principles.
Large mainframe computers saw their time in the sun, and still exist
today, but by the 70s were being rapidly replaced in many applications
by minicomputers of various sorts. Especially notable was the Digital
Equipment Corporation (DEC) PDP-11 series, from which Ken Thompson,
Dennis Richie, and the rest of the motley crew at Bell Labs Murray
Hill Unit 1127 brought forth the proprietary Unix, leading ultimately
to today's ubiquitous open-source Linux.
Yet DEC also suffered a lack of vision, exemplified when their founder
Ken Olsen suggested in 1977 that nobody needed a computer in their
home. Now DEC is but a corporate memory, twice removed.
And so we come to the arc of Microsoft, based on the rise of the
personal computer and the Windows OS. This curve can be traced back
to the original IBM PC in 1980, which itself had roots in the hobbyist
8080 CP/M OS world. The IBM PC spawned a vast landscape of clones,
largely due to the publication (in the famous "black notebook") of the
full source code for the hardware's BIOS, and lack of litigious
attacks on clone-makers (in contrast to the later and ongoing behavior
of Apple, one might note).
Bill Gates and Microsoft thus provided the software "stuff" that kept
the PC architecture running, though not without the use of some
business techniques that draw the ire of regulators and consumers
alike.
Microsoft's own insight initially proved deficient in a manner similar
to that of the phone companies, in their failure to recognize the
importance of the Internet early on, then trying to rapidly play
catch-up later, sometimes through anticompetitive actions.
Microsoft's various Windows operating systems have reigned supreme
over the vast majority of PC for many years now, but that arc seems to
be heading inexorably downward -- as various forces converge to
relegate the very large, proprietary operating system model to the
pages of technology history.
This really isn't about XP, Vista, or Windows 7 per se. I'm in the
camp that never saw Vista as being so abominable as many detractors
claimed, especially when pre-installed on new hardware. And Windows 7
does clean up some of Vista's rough edges (though some of those edges
were pretty straightforward for knowledgeable users to smooth out even
within Vista).
The really big problem is basically a matter of complexity. Windows'
ubiquity has resulted in an immensely complex mass of software to
support a vast range of hardware.
Since Windows is proprietary, piracy is understandably a major concern
to Microsoft -- resulting in ever escalating and what many observers
would characterize as increasingly intrusive and objectionable
anti-piracy authentication mechanisms.
Windows security patches and other updates occur in complex
environments, with complicated dependencies that may result in
legitimate users being unable, for example, to install new security
fixes after their repeated attempts to install other Windows update
packages have failed for any of a multitude of possible reasons.
Complexity is part of modern computing, and hiding much of
that complexity from most users, without unreasonably compromising
the user experience itself, is both a science and an art. But complexity
combined with proprietary operating systems can create a "Catch-22"
situation for those users who might be able to figure out why they're
having problems, but can't even begin to do so since relevant source
code isn't available. What does Windows update KB04822284582 really
do? Only Microsoft actually knows for sure.
Microsoft is still selling lots of Windows copies of course. And
there certainly are alternatives to Windows. Apple's current OS is
Linux based, and their tight control over hardware has reduced the
complexity of their driver support issues and associated problems.
Linux as an open-source, standalone OS, e.g. in modern incarnations
such as Ubuntu, is both powerful and flexible, but has had difficulty
penetrating the mainstream consumer desktop marketplace due in part to
perceived support and applications availability issues.
All of which leads us to the current arc with the positive derivative.
"Cloud computing" -- especially linked with relatively compact,
typically Linux-based open-sourced operating system environments --
may hold the promise of solving many of the "complexity" problems that
have both led to the bloat of Microsoft Windows and held back the mass
acceptance of desktop Linux.
Amusingly, cloud computing in many ways brings us full circle back to
the Isaac Asimov "Multivac" model of computing that was de rigueur
back in early Unix minicomputer days, with most processing power and
storage on central facilities, accessed by users via relatively simple
terminal devices. Our "terminals" today are typically far more
powerful than the central computers back then, but the comparison
remains valid.
Cloud computing can only be as good as the service providing the
cloud, and this is an area where Google is rapidly staking out
territory while the rest of the industry plays catch-up. And though
Microsoft Windows seems most at risk right now, there's unlikely to be
a long hiatus before similar dynamics significantly impact the Apple
ecosystem as well.
Proponents of cloud computing point to resources availability, data
reliability, security benefits, and a host of other positive features.
Detractors express concerns about Internet connectivity, security
risks, and privacy. It would be foolish in the extreme for anyone to
dismiss out of hand any of these factors.
Viewed from both historical and technological standpoints, it's
difficult to escape the sense that the arc of the Big, Proprietary OS
is on a decided decline. And it appears that largely open source,
cloud computing models are but beginning what is likely to be a rapid
rise that I hope -- and believe -- will ultimately stimulate the
solving of challenges that are currently associated with this
computing model in some quarters.
In particular, I don't see any insoluble aspects to these issues,
given the will to deal with them -- and there are some fascinating
research facets involved.
Getting cloud computing right is especially important given the
development and support issues associated with the alternative
"PC-centric" model with its Big OS dilemmas and proprietary
operational structures -- increasingly unpalatable to users of all
types.
None of this is going to happen overnight. Technological change,
especially in computing, is more of a process than an event. But as
we review the arcs of technology reaching back a century and more, it
appears that the Windows OS ecosystem -- that has played such an
important role in the advance of personal computing for so many years
-- should be preparing to take its final bow and then exit, stage
right, with head held high.
Time, and technology, marches on.
All the best for the Thanksgiving holiday.
--Lauren--
Lauren Weinstein
lauren@vortex.com
Tel: +1 (818) 225-2800
http://www.pfir.org/lauren
Co-Founder, PFIR
- People For Internet Responsibility - http://www.pfir.org
Co-Founder, NNSquad
- Network Neutrality Squad - http://www.nnsquad.org
Founder, GCTIP - Global Coalition
for Transparent Internet Performance - http://www.gctip.org
Founder, PRIVACY Forum - http://www.vortex.com
Member, ACM Committee on Computers and Public Policy
Lauren's Blog: http://lauren.vortex.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/laurenweinstein